新GMAT作文黄金80题范文

Argument 1

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2. 错误类比：color film processing和processing of food不相同。problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation都只影响food 不影响film. 同时，忽略他因。是否是因为组织更有效率才使COST下降的？很可能是material necessary for the process下降了价钱。所以，两者更不同。

3. gratuitous assumption：二十五年不代表学到了很多。很可能什么都没学到，或者技术已经out of date.

Argument 2

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3. causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit. all things are equal: The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future. either-or-or choice: The author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives, there is no middle ground between they two. In fact, we can have the field offices under centralized control.

Argument 6

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3， 因为H地区industrial and manufacturing比较attractive，所以那里的工人很可能只适合做这类的，如果缺乏能够做innovative technologies and research的工人labor pool，那么很可能导致失败。 H的低失业率更可能成为坏处。因为比如有less available work force。企业必须提高wage才能吸引他们。提高了COST。 错误的假设过去的成功能够代表未来。比方说已经饱和的资源、过分的竞争、以及可能出现的错误政策，都

可能导致H地区的经济不再发达。

Argument 8

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3. survey is doubtful: Detailed information should be given such as the absolute number of workers of that corporation. insufficient sample: The corporation is not representative of all the other corporations. gratuitous assumption: It is natural that workers are interested in the topics such as corporate structuring and design of benefits programs. This trend can not be cited to support the author’s allege.

Argument 9 作者认为应该到该地区建厂理由是这里的失业率很高。但是却没有给出因果关系。从常理来看这是没有道理的因为失业率高的地方可能更难雇佣到雇员从而使成本增加。 作者认为该地区会鼓励研发，所以应该到该地区投资。但事实上就象作者说的那样该地区是制造业中心怎么可能有很多对技术和科研很熟练的人员。 false analogy: The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry. causal oversimplification: Other factors that may contribute t to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out. gratuitous assumption: The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years.

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4. The absolute value of consumption should be given by the author. all things are equal Whether the increase of profit gained by attracting more middle-aged consumers will be offset by the reduction of profit because of the loss of young consumers.

Argument 10

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1， 没有投诉不代表没有不满。很可能学生以其他的方式发泄不满意，比如absent the class, leave the school earlier, 等

等。One obvious rejoinder to this line of reasoning is that。。。很可能他们已经知道了学生去protest了，所以才没有去。 2， 200名学生不具有代表性的说法不对。很可能是被推选出来的elected to represent the entire students。缺乏根据的论

证，错。

Argument 11

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1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country, 不能说两个倒闭一个开就是坏事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企业，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企业。也是好事。

2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因为在P在任期间，全国的经济不景气，造成了事业更增加。而不是两个市长的不同。假定过去和现在一样，也是个错误！recession depression downturn低迷时期

Argument 12

读了广告之后买了特价菜，并不意味着是因为看了广告才去买特价菜。可以有很多因素促使消费者买特价菜。此外作者是想说可以提高总体销售水平但他的论证实际根本没有涉及这一点。起码要给出没有做广告时候一天销售额和做了广告之后的对比。

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3， 没有对比没做广告和做广告后sale的对比，只说了消费的人看了广告，并且一半支付了100以上，很可能没有广告的话也一样。 没有建立起因果联系，虽然买东西的人看了广告，但是不代表是因为广告而买的。很可能不存在此因果联系。 没有排除他因。如过sale上升了，那也有可能是别的原因导致的，而不是因为广告。比如thanks giving，比如商品质

量提高，花样更多，比如最近的经济很好等等。

Argument 13

1， 没有排除他因For example, the Cumquat might have changed owners or chefs; it might have launched a coupon ad

campaign in the local print media; or it might have changed or updated the menu.

2， 同时出现不代表有因果关系

3， 错误类比。We must also assume that what is true of the Cumquat will likewise be true of most other businesses.

It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷时期 is part of a picture of ... mayor set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro's own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population . availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass cast one's vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal 代表学生的形成方式不知道。如果是随机产生的，那么去反对的学生完全可以代表学生总体。 没去的学生不一定不关心。他们可能有更重要的事情要忙。例如要赶回家过圣诞节。有已经订好的寒假计划等等。 此外，没去的学生之所以没有去很可能是因为他们觉得那些代表足可以代表他们表达心声。

Argument 14

1， 没有排除他因。很可能是学校出台的policy要求老师上课认真，学生更加勤奋导致的。同时发生不能说明因果。stricter

discipline applied last year.

还有其他的比如加入新课引起学生的兴趣等等。counseling and training programs

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Argument 15

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Argument 16

1. 适龄人口增加不一定上大学人数就一定增加

2. 就算上大学人数增加需要的大学老师也不一定增加

3. 就算需要的老师增加,waymarsh的就业也不见得会水涨船高.

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3， 人口增加也不一定都上大学。很可能都选择了就业。 even if we grant the preceding assumption上大学的人多了不一定需要更多老师，很可能大学通过增大一个班人数的方式，保持原有老师数； 就算需要GRADUATED DEGREE的人，也不代表W也会benefit from this trend，缺少信息，它可能是一个质

量不好的大学，学校不会从这里的人中挑选。foretold regarding the employability

Argument 20

1. 小镇居民就医率低可能还有很多其他的因素如：健康的生活方式，自然环境优越，饮食结构科学。

2. 该矿泉水所含的矿物质是否有别与普通的自来水作者并没有给出支撑的论据.而且单纯这几种矿物质不一定能满足人体

需要.

3. 完全无菌并不一定对人体十分有好处,水体里的一些细菌是有益的.此外喝这种矿泉水显然不是摄取无菌水 的唯一途径,

相比起来一种比较廉价的方式就是把水烧开.

Argument 28

1. 对原因估计的可能不对.由作者给出的他认为必须执行的解决方案来看,作者一定认为人们不坐往返巴士而是开车

去地铁站的原因是巴士车费相对于地铁站的停车费来说比较贵.To begin with, by concluding that the transit company must either reduce shuttle fares or increase parking fees, the author assumes that these are the only available solutions to the problem of limited shuttle use.但事实原因可能还有很多.例如:巴士的环境不好速度比较慢中间间隔时间太长车站位置不好等等.

2. 相应的作者所提出的两个必须要执行的解决方案也就不一定实用.应对于上述提到的问题可能一个比较好的解决

方案是:对巴士进行装修把车站设置在更为便利的地方提高巴士的车速缩短时间间隔.

inconvenient shuttle routing and/or scheduling adjust adopt mutually exclusive combination

The author assumes that reducing shuttle fees and increasing parking fees are mutually exclusive alternatives. impose However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either/or choice.

1， 没有排除他因，这两个是否是唯一的原因 数据vague，物价水平和工资哪个长的更快？5000个就业机会和总体失业水平相比是不是微不足道？六个公司总部设在这里，有没有离开的？调查是由谁进行的，接受调查的又是谁，可信度怎么样？ 就算经济确实增长了也不一定是ADAMS的功劳 以上两点没有说明，也就无法因为ZEBULON的经济观点与之相左而判定他上任就会使经济下滑。 错误类比，其他的学校情况跟这个不一定相同。比如很可能是艺术类等文科院校，而这个是科学类的，所以不同。 过去推将来，不对。很可能短暂的interest之后学生会失去兴趣。或者别的什么情况发生了变化。

2， 解决方案不是false dilemma。

Argument 31

1.all the things are equal 作者在得出这个推荐之前做了一个假设就是在未来的二十年中咖啡豆以及可乐的原料的相对价格不变.但这在这么长的一段时期是不可能的.很可能它们其中一种的原料相对于另外一种大幅度上升.由于相对成本的变化从而改变了相对价格也就改变了消费者的消费倾向.那么作者的建议就是完全靠不住的.

2.除了年龄因素很多其他的因素也会影响两种饮料的消费量例如某一代人可能在每个年龄段都比另一代人消费更多的可乐.除非作者排除这些其他因素,否则说理是gratuitous的

3.没有足够有力的证据表明该项研究结果就是可信的Finally, the firm unjustifiably relies on the studies that correlate coffee and cola consumption with age. The firm does not provide evidence to confirm the reliability of the studies.Moreover, while the phrase "studies suggest" may appear to lend credibility to these claims, the phrase is vague enough to actually render the claims worthless, in the absence of any information about them.

the author can not justify his recommendation ill-founded 无正当理由的

1， 老人数增加不能导致年轻人数减少。是错误的推测。同时，即使老人增加，那么增加的老人很可能不是coffee drinker。 2， 过去和未来不一样，未来可能两种成本变化，价格发生很大变化。

3， 该研究结果不一定可信！

Argument 32

1. 对事故的反映时间诚然是评价服务质量的一个因素但并不是唯一的因素.所以仅仅因为东区的商业救护班的反映时间短

就认定商业救护办的服务更好是gratuitous的.

2. 就算东区的商业班的服务质量更好也并不意味着,西区用商业班就会有一样的成效.因为东西区的情况是不同的.很可能

西区的志愿者更有服务,献身意识.

3. 此外除非商业班收十分昂贵的服务费用或者有十分多的事故事实这些都是不可能的, 改成商业是不见得就可以给该镇

增加很多税收的.所以把这一点作为理由是不正确的.

considerable revenue significant significance consequently consequence ... is insufficient evidence for the claim that this will be the case for ... ambulance-crew proficiency training emergency

1， 错误类比 两个城市不一样，很可能因为西和东的不一样，比如，路的情况traffic condition。可能东的车辆更好。服

务的态度更好。

而且没有说东的志愿情况如何，很可能东的志愿比商业的快。

2， 草率的判断：就算是商业的更快，也不一定更好。反映时间不是唯一的因素，有其他——比如服务的质量，态度，器

材等等。

3， 另外，除非商业可以charge considerable fees 或者 accident rate非常高，否则未必带来可观的revenue。

Argument 34

1环保组织所提供的标识所关心的方面和民众所关心的方面可能不一致

2关心环保问题不意味着他们就一定会采取一些具体的措施象是在这个例子里面购买这个公司的产品

The author assumes that the public's concern about environmental issues will result in its taking steps to do something about the problem-in this case, to use the Easy Credit Company credit card.

3权衡了额外付出的成本和收益之后并不一定值得这么做.

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2， 首先，关心环境的人，不一定是使用信用卡的。第二，关心环境问题的人，关心的issues不一定与该组织的相同。 因果关系不明确：不一定人们关心环保就一定用使用信用卡的方式来表达。因为More often，人们可能采取更加直

接的方式，比如直接donate money to the environmental organization.

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Argument 35

1， 增加教学科目和图书馆的型号并不一定就能使学生变得满意因为他们可能并不是对教学和图书馆的这两个方面感

到不满

2， 入学人数和入学申请的下降可能是因为整个外部环境导致的而不是学校自己的问题

3， 没有提供学生对教学质量和图书馆不满意的具体证据.

4， 调查的本身就值得怀疑.

ability attract customer merit alleviate inadequate unfavorable economical conditions hearsay rumour scant anecdotal evidence

Argument 38

1， 入住率低可能是因为学生人数减少等原因造成的

2， 同时减少供给和降低房费可能会抵消入住率提高而带来的收入提高效应而有余

3， 就算不会完全抵消仍然有其他原因影响收入例如说学生进入后的维修等等。

boosting rental maintenance oppressive seriousness trivailize

1， 忽略他因：单纯地说问题所在是rent. 但实际上可能有很多其他的因素：房子的condition, security, cleaning service，

noisy surroundings等等。

2， 过去不能推广到未来：很可能变化了——比如enrollments of students have sharply increased。所以，很可能减少

available的数量可能不是合适的做法。

3， 减少提供的房子，降低房租，很可能导致收入下降。

Argument 39

1去年是这样今年呢以后呢？

2很有可能是乘客对服务不满意却没时间正式申诉

3和别的航空公司比较如何seriousness trivailize

1， 没有complaint不代表没有不满。

2， 没有跟其他公司对比，同时并不知道总数。

Argument 40

1比起价格下降而带来的损失产量提高的影响是不是更大不是定数Increasing sales by lowering the price of sugar will not yeild an increase in income unless the increase in sales is sufficient to overcome the loss in income due to the lower price. in the absence of ...

2可能性价比本来就很有竞争力了不需要降价，也可能价格已经很低了没有降低的空间了

3降低进口可能是一个更好的办法A trade-deficit occurs when a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports. However, the author provides no evidence that substantiates this assumption. It is possible that revenues from imports will increase dramatically in the near future; if so, the course of action proposed by the author might be unnecessary to solve Sacchar's trade deficit proplem. To the extent that this is the case...

Argument 42 另外，利润率关系到收入和支出，很可能两个比较收入小于支出。

1价格提高带来的增加和数量减少带来的减少哪个大不是定数

2收益增加并不一定就会提高士气，因为他们的工资很可能是固定工资而不是绩效工资。

3其他方法可能更有效果。例如减低成本，把固定工资改成绩效工资。

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Argument 43

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3， 从一个医院的情况就推广到整个太草率 治愈率低可能是因为接受的患者得的病都比较罕见等原因造成的 工资低，总体利润低，时间分配给教学都不能一定说明质量差。可能其他福利好，接受的病人少，教学研究有助

于进步

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Argument 44

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Argument 46

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Argument 47

1. 在新地址庆祝第二个周年纪念日只能说明，搬到新地址之后咖啡店继续存活了下来但是不是比原来好了作者并没

有给出足够的证据证明。 不一定没有reported就是没发生。可能是公司出于reputation的考虑，隐瞒conceal了偷窃。 没有因果关系，胸牌不一定是原因。可能是管理的比较好，员工更加cautious等等。 不一定其他的公司也适用一样的政策。很可能其他的公司不适合使用胸牌——比如服务业company who provide service rather than product，顾客比较多，并不好管理。 没有报道出来不一定代表没有，可能是为了公司声誉reputation fame prestige没有说也可能是因为没有发现 一定是佩带了有照片的身份证起了作用吗？这个很难说。两者只是碰巧同时发生，没有必然的因果联系。 不是所有公司的员工偷盗问题都是很严重的。例如服务产品提供的公司。 没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因：很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等，质量提高，或者经济情况好，人们有更多的demand。 销售额增加不一定是profit增加。 错误类比：就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高，也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience，而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的，人们更愿意到special shops。 总体销售额增加20%利润不一定也会相应增加 销售额的增加不一定是由于增加了这个部门造成的 以后是否还会有如此效果不一定。因为可能已经有企业提供更专业更优质的商品和服务。 首先，医生的人数与质量之间没有必然的因果原因。profit跟质量也无关系。很可能treating price is significantly lower。 成功率不能说明问题。缺乏其他的证据，忽略了他因：比如因为质量高，所以很多serious illness的，而送往其他医院的一般都是common cases. 时间不能代表问题。因为那些医生所做的研究很可能帮助他们进行治疗。 收入是否会增加？因为volume会减少。 士气与volume的减少是否有关系？很可能工资是fixed salary，不会被其他改变。 是否有其他的办法？比如引进技术，减少成本等等。

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导致另外三家店无法在那个地点经营下去的原因可能并表示不是地址而是其他因素 那个地址就算不适合开那三种店打算内并没有证据证明也不适合开咖啡店

52. The following editorial appeared in the Elm City paper.

“The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage, and arrests for crime and vagrancy have increased in the nearby Oak City Park. Elm City should pay attention to the example of the Oak City mall and deny the application to build a shopping mall in Elm City.”(新题)

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

“The construction of last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City has done little for the residents of the community. Since the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area suffers from an acute parking shortage. In addition, because the mall?s owner lives in nearby Elm City, the profits derived from sales at the mall are not being returned to the community. These problems, coupled with the increase in trash and litter in nearby Oak City park, demonstrate that Oak City did not use good judgment in allowing the construction of the mall in the first place.”(老题)

Elm城的报纸上的社论：

去年在橡树城市中心修建购物中心是个错误。由于中心开业，大量的本地企业倒闭了。而且市中心受到严重缺乏停车位的困扰。在附近的橡树城公园拘捕的罪犯和流浪汉也增加了。榆树城应该注意橡树城购物中心的例子并防止在榆树城建立购物中心。

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1， To begin with, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the shopping mall's opening and the closing of

local businesses.

2， Moreover, the author's conclusion is also based on the assumption that the shopping mall has caused the increase in crime

and vagrancy.

3， Finally, even if the shopping mall did cause the closing of local business and the increasing crime and vagrancy in Oak

City, the author's prediction that Elm City will suffer from the same fate as Oak City is still open to doubt.

54. The following appeared in an Excelsior Company memorandum.

“The Excelsior Company plans to introduce its own brand of coffee. Since coffee is an expensive food item, and since there are already many established brands of coffee, the best way to gain customers for the Excelsior brand is to do what Superior, the leading coffee company, did when it introduced the newest brand in its line of coffees: conduct a temporary sales promotion that offers free samples, price reductions, and discount coupons for the new brand.” Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

精工公司的备忘录：

精工公司计划引入它自己的咖啡品牌。因为咖啡是一种昂贵的食品，而且已经有很多知名的咖啡品牌了，所以精工公司获得顾客的最好方法是做最主要的咖啡公司——高手公司在其系列产品中加入它的最新品牌的时候所作的事情：通过派发免费样品，降价和优惠卷制造新品牌的暂时的销售高潮。

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3. 别的公司的经验是否可以被套用在该公司身上尚待考证 该公司是否承担的起诸如发送免费样品降价等促销策略 那个公司采取上述措施的时候是否获得了成功并没有证据论证 作者所给出的所有问题和商场的建设都是时间上的前后关系而没有给出证据显示他们的因果关系 作者只给出了不好的结果而没有给出好的影响很可能权衡利弊之后被选择的是要开这个商场 这个商场的建立不应该也不能由此就否定以后所有的商场的建立

1，

2，

3，

60. The following appeared as part of a recommendation by one of the directors of the Beta Company.

“The Alpha Company has just reduced its workforce by laying off fifteen percent of its employees in all divisions and at all levels, and it is encouraging early retirement for other employees. As you know, the Beta Company manufactures some products similar to Alpha?s, but our profits have fallen over the last few years. To improve Beta?s competitive position, we should try to hire a significant number of Alpha?s former workers, since these experienced workers can provide valuable information about Alpha?s successful methods, will require little training, and will be particularly motivated to compete against Alpha.”

β公司的一个经理人的一份建议书：

α公司通过在所有部门和所有层次裁减了15％的员工减少了工作人员，它还鼓励其他员工提前退休。如你所知，β公司生产部分和α公司类似的产品，但我们的利润在过去几年内下降了。为了提高β的竞争力，我们应该试着雇用大量的α的前雇员，因为这些有经验的工人将提供关于α成功方法的有用信息，而且基本不需要培训，并将更有动力与α竞争。

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61. The following appeared in the letters-to-the-editor section of a local newspaper.

“Muscle Monthly, a fitness magazine that regularly features pictures of bodybuilders using state-of-the-art exercise machines, frequently sells out, according to the owner of Skyview Newsstand. To help maximize fitness levels in our town?s residents, we should, therefore, equip our new community fitness center with such machines.”

本地报纸上给编者的信板块：

一份叫Muscle Monthly的健康杂志规律性地刊登使用最好的训练器械的健美运动员的照片。据skyview报摊的摊主说它经常卖完。为了提高我镇居民的健康水平，我们应该给我们的新健身中心装备这样的器械。

1.

2. The bodybuilders may just pretend to be using the state-of-the-art exercise machines while, in fact, their excellent body conditions are due to the use of other types of equipment. And, they just do so for the advertisement purpose. The circulation is just one of the indicators of the popularity of the magazine. What is more, I can find no direct

relationship between the popularity of the magazine and the author's suggestion that we should equip the community with the state-of-the-art excercise machine.

3. The machines for body building will not necessarily have the same effect on fitness. A公司的雇员是否能提供有用信息还不知道。因为被说服退休的，很可能是效率低下的，从事非核心的工作。 没有证据证明A公司是否利润上升，有可能也是下降，甚至下降的更快。所以A的雇员即使提供信息也未必有用。 A与B是否有足够相似，很可能差很远。只有一些相似产品，不代表所有，而且很可能并不是这些产品导致的利润下降。 很可能得到的利润不能补偿多雇佣的人员的cost。 According to the common sense the workers who are laid off are always the least effective and well-experienced. Whether the Alpha Company is successful or not is still open to doubt. The recruitment will bring benefit to the company and cost at the same time. No conclusion can be given until the benefit-cost analysis has been made. The products the two companies manufacture are just similar. The skills the Alpha company's workers own will not be applicable to the Beta company. 没有证据证明SUPERIOR的策略成功了。 就算成功了，也不一定会适合EC。因为那个公司可能有很强的实力，创造出high quality coffee，所以经过促销后很可能会win large amount of customers。但是EC不一定能创造出这样好的咖啡。 就算是创造出了好咖啡，也不一定有实力实行这样的策略。很可能销售的增加不能off set那些cost.

1， 如果杂志卖光得快不一定是因为这个器材好，很可能是价钱便宜，和其他的内容。

2， 那些人很可能并不真正用这些机器，而只是摆出造型。

3， 如果是为了body-building的机器很可能不能fitness。比如，cardiovascular fitness。

62. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.

“The Cumquat Café made a mistake in moving to a new location. After one year at the new spot, it is doing about the same volume of business as before, but the owners of the RoboWrench plumbing supply wholesale outlet that took over its old location are apparently doing better: RoboWrench is planning to open a store in a neighboring city.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

地方报纸的商业版：

Cumquat咖啡店搬到新地址是个错误。到新址的一年以后，它的营业额和以前基本一样。但在它的原址开业的提供铅管批发出口的Robo Wrench的店主显然做的更好。Robo Wrench正计划在临近城市开一家店。

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63. The following appeared in a memorandum from the Director of Human Resources to the executive officers of Company X.

“Last year, we surveyed our employees on improvements needed at Company X by having them rank, in order of importance, the issues presented in a list of possible improvements. Improved communications between employees and management was consistently ranked as the issue of highest importance by the employees who responded to the survey. As you know, we have since instituted regular communications sessions conducted by high-level management, which the employees can attend on a voluntary basis. Therefore, it is likely that most employees at Company X now feel that the improvement most needed at the company has been made.”

人力资源经理给X公司的经营主管的备忘录：

去年，我们向员工调查他们认为X公司应该进行的改进，让他们把改进按重要性排列。结果列印为一张可能的改进的表格。根据调查中员工的反应，“加强员工和管理层的沟通”最具重要性，稳居调查表之首。如你所知，那以后我们建立了由高层管理人员组织，雇员可以自愿参加的常规交流会。因此，看来X的多数员工认为最应该进行的改进已经完成了。

(下文思路单一，两段都是谈调查方法的问题，还可以谈后半部分，“采取了措施就一定能达到目的吗？”) 1.

2.

3.

1， 调查的可信性：是否anonymous，如果要named，很可能并不是他们最想要的改进。

2， 改进方法是否充分？是否交流会有很好交流，并且采纳accept意见

66. The following appeared in an article in a travel magazine.

“After the airline industry began requiring airlines to report their on-time rates, Speedee Airlines achieved the number one

on-time rate, with over 89 percent of its flights arriving on time each month. And now Speedee is offering more flights to more The result of a last year's survey does not necessarily represent the improvement most needed of this year. How was the survey held has not been illustrated by the author, thus making the conclusion groundless. Whether the implement of the mentioned resolution is right or wrong is still unkonwn, it is still too early to say the improvement has been made. False analogy Other factors other than location that may contribute to the faliure of the Cumquat Cafe should be considered and ruled out. Likewise, there may be some other factors that will explain the success of the success of the RoboWrench plumbing. One year's poor performance is too wake an evidence to conclude that the Cafe has made a mistake to relocate.

destinations than ever before. Clearly, Speedee is the best choice for today?s business traveler.”

旅游杂志的文章：

航空工业开始要求航空公司报告他们的准时率以后，Speedee航空公司达到准时率最高，每月他的航次有超过89％都准时到达。现在，Speedee提供了更多的航次到更多的地方。显然，Speedee是今天的商务旅行者最好的选择。 1.

2.

3.

4. 提供了更多航次，准时率可能下降。 准时不是最好选择的唯一标准。服务，价格也很重要。 没有说到底几个月。如果报告只有两个月，不足以说明问题。其他公司的准时率说不定正在稳步上升 由于是航空公司自己报告，数据可能被扭曲: We can image that the main purpose of airline industry to require on-times

rates report is to identify and award the best companies, it is easy to suppose that the Speedee Airlines, which can benefit from its report, give unfair and inaccurate date.

67. The following appeared in a memorandum to the planning department of an investment firm.

“Costs have begun dropping for several types of equipment currently used to convert solar energy into electricity. Moreover, some exciting new technologies for converting solar energy are now being researched and developed. Hence we can expect that solar energy will soon become more cost efficient and attractive than coal or oil as a source of electrical power. We should, therefore, encourage investment in Solario, a new manufacturer of solar-powered products. After all, Solario?s chief executive was once on the financial planning team for Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm that has shown remarkable growth since its recent incorporation.”

投资公司计划部的备忘录：

将太阳能转化为电能的几种设备的成本最近降低了。而且，一些令人兴奋的转化太阳能的新技术正在研究和开发中。因此我们可以预期作为发电原料的太阳能将变得比媒和石油更便宜更吸引人。我们应该鼓励给新的太阳能动力产品制造商Solario投资。毕竟Solario的CEO曾是Ready－to－Ware（一家在其新近成立后表现出众的软件工程公司）的财务计划团队中的一员。

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4. The decrease of the cost of several types of equipment does not necessarily guarantee the reduction of the overall cost of the convertion of solar energy into electicity. It is still too early to say that the technologies for converting the solar energy that are being researched and developed will certainly make the solar energy cost efficient and attractive. Even if the cost reduction of the solar energy is immediately accessible, it is still imprudent to say the solar energy is more attractive compared with the coal and oil as a source of electrical power. The former performance of the CEO does not guarantee the future success of the Solario. From the autor's

assertion, the CEO's ability to manage this solar energy company is, in fact, somewhat dubious, because he or she once was on the financial planning team for Ready-to-ware, which is in the industry completely different from the Solario.

1， 除了价钱之外很可能有别的因素让人更喜欢石油。

2， 不知道cost下降后是否仍然比石油等的价钱高。而且研究也未必能成功.

3， 财务顾问不一定能做好CEO。

69. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of a company that makes shampoo.

“A widely publicized study claims that HR2, a chemical compound in our shampoo, can contribute to hair loss after prolonged use. This study, however, involved only 500 subjects. Furthermore, we have received no complaints from our customers during the past year, and some of our competitors actually use more HR2 per bottle of shampoo than we do. Therefore, we do not need to consider replacing the HR2 in our shampoo with a more expensive alternative.”

生产香波的公司的主席的备忘录：

一份广泛出版的研究声称HR2，我们的香波里的一种化合物，长期使用后可能导致脱发。但是，这项研究只包括500个样本。此外，过去的一年里我们并未从我们的顾客那里接到投诉，而且一些我们的竞争者在一瓶香波里使用的HR2比我们的还要多。因此，我们不必考虑用更贵的替代物替代我们的香波里的HR2。

71. The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the business manager of a department store.

“Local clothing stores reported that their profits decreased, on average, for the three-month period between August 1 and October 31. Stores that sell products for the home reported that, on average, their profits increased during this same period. Clearly, consumers are choosing to buy products for their homes instead of clothing. To take advantage of this trend, we should reduce the size of our clothing departments and enlarge our home furnishings and household products departments.” 专卖店的商务经理的备忘录：

本地服装店报告说从8月1号到10月31号的3个月里他们的平均利润下降。销售家庭用品的商店却报告同期的平均利润上升。很明显，顾客正选择为他们的家里购买用品而不是买衣物。为了利用这个趋势，我们应该缩减我们的服装部规模而扩大家庭装饰和家务用品部

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1， 降低和上升，是否存在必然的关系。忽略他因。

2， 三个月的时间是否能说明一种趋势？

85. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a daily newspaper.

“Company A has a large share of the international market in video-game hardware and software. Company B, the pioneer in these products, was once a $12 billion-a-year giant but collapsed when children became bored with its line of products. Thus Company A can also be expected to fail, especially given the fact that its games are now in so many American homes that the demand for them is nearly exhausted.”(新题库 85)

日报的商业版：

公司a在视频游戏的硬件软件方面有很大的国际市场份额。公司b是这些产品的先锋，而且曾经一度是年收入120亿元的巨人，但在孩子们厌倦了它的系列产品后崩溃了。因此公司a也将失败，考虑到它的产品已经占据了那么多的美国家庭，对他的需求已经接近枯竭。

1， 类比错误。是否由share导致的。

2， A很可能生产出新的产品。

（范文对应：北美范文 84 Video-game companies P271）

91. The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper.

“Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart

charged 5 cents apiece for lemons, but today it commonly charges over 30 cents apiece. In only one of these last eleven years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices.”

当地报纸的社论：

过去的10年里，桔类水果的价格实际上上升了。11年前，Megamart每个柠檬要价5分，现在一般要价为30分一个。A period of three month is too short to draw a general conclusion of the overall trend. The past three months' trend does not guarantee the same in the future. Whether the reports from the local clothing stores and stores that sell products for the home are reliable or not are still open to doubt, thus making the author's suggestion groundless.

过去11年只有一年不适合桔类水果生长。显然，柑桔种植者应该对桔类水果价格过度上涨负责。为防止他们继续哄抬价格规范价格规定很有必要。

1， 小范围推大范围。

2， 忽略他因，是否只有一种因素导致价格上升——不适合生长。。。还有，比如环境保护，加工价格上升，人力成本上升，

或者单纯的物价上涨。。。monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions

1， 柠檬缺乏代表性，或者说，柠檬有其特殊性，譬如柠檬都是进口的，比较贵；

2， 天气好不一定代表物价要低，因为种植柑橘的农民已经动用了可用的资源了，产量无法再多了；

3， 是否物价高就是农民肆意抬高的缘故，可能是dealers在其中的作用；

4， 政府是否要介入，虽然价格变贵了，但是targeted customers没有变化，对整个国民经济影响不大

(范文对应：北美范文 89 The price of citrus fruit P274)

94. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.

“Hippocrene Plumbing Supply recently opened a wholesale outlet in the location once occupied by the Cumquat Cafe. Hippocrene has apparently been quite successful there because it is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city. But the Cumquat Cafe, one year after moving to its new location, has seen its volume of business drop somewhat from the previous year’s. Clearly, the former site is a better business location, and the Cumquat Cafe has made a mistake in moving to its new address.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Hippocrene铅管供应商在一度为Cumquat咖啡店的地方开了一家直销店。Hippocrene现在相当的成功，因为他们正计划在临近城市开一家大的直销店。但是Cumquat咖啡店在搬到新地址一年后发现它的业务量比前一年有所下降。很明显，它的前一个地址是一个更好的商务地址，Cumquat咖啡店作出搬迁决定是错误的。

1， gratuitous assumption: It is absurd to say the Hippocrene has been quite successful in the original location of Cumquat Café

Restaurant only because the former is planning to open a large outlet in a nearby city.

2， false analogy

3， causal oversimplification: Other factors other than the location that may contribute to the success of the H and the failure of the

C should be considered and ruled out.

（范文对应：北美范文 92 Location of Cumquat Café P276）

96. The following appeared as part of an article in a computer magazine.

“A year ago Apex Manufacturing bought its managers computers for their homes and paid for telephone connections so that the managers could access Apex computers and data files from home after normal business hours. Since last year, productivity at Apex has increased by 15 percent. Other companies can learn from the success at Apex: given

home computers and access to company resources, employees will work additional hours at home and thereby increase company profits.”

电脑杂志的文章：

一年前Apex制造公司给它的经理们在家买了电脑，并支付电话费，这样他们就可以在工作时间以外从家里连接到Apex的电脑和数据文件。从去年开始，Apex的生产能力增长了15%。其他公司可以借鉴Apex的成功，提供家用电脑和到公司资源的链接，雇员会在家里加班并提高公司利润。

(对应北美范文 94 Apex Manufacturing P 278)

99. The following appeared in a memorandum sent by a vice-president of the Nadir Company to the company?s human resources

department.

“Nadir does not need to adopt the costly ?family-friendly? programs that have been proposed, such as part-time work, work at home, and job-sharing. When these programs were made available at the Summit Company, the leader in its industry, only a small percentage of employees participated in them. Rather than adversely affecting our profitability by offering these

programs, we should concentrate on offering extensive training that will enable employees to increase their productivity.” Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Nadir公司的副总给公司人力资源部的备忘录：

Nadir不需要采用推荐的昂贵的家庭友好项目，诸如半日工作，在家中工作，工作共享等等。当在其行业占据龙头位置的Summit公司采用了这些项目时，它的员工只有一小部分加入了。我们与其采用这些项目来影响我们的利润，不如集中提供一些扩展培训，来使员工提供他们的生产力。

1， false analogy

2， It is imprudent轻率的 to say the “family-friendly” programs are costly and not profitable.

3， Likewise, it is also imprudent to say the “family-friendly” programs are counterproductive.

4， either-or-choice

(对应北美范文 97 Against ?family-friendly? programs P280)

101. The following appeared in an editorial from a newspaper serving the town of Saluda.

“The Saluda Consolidated High School offers over 200 different courses from which its students can choose. A much smaller private school down the street offers a basic curriculum of only 80 different courses, but it consistently sends a higher proportion of its graduating seniors on to college than Consolidated does. By eliminating at least half of the courses offered there and focusing on a basic curriculum, we could improve student performance at Consolidated and also save many tax dollars.”

Saluda镇的报纸的编者按：

Saluda统一高中提过超过200中不同的课程供它的学生选择。路那头一所小的多的私立学校提供80种基本的课程，但是它的毕业生升入大学的比例始终比统一高中要高。去除至少一半的课程而着眼于基本课程，我们可以改善统一高中学生的表现并省下税收收入。

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3. causal oversimplification false analogy It is likely that the smaller private school is incapable of offering more courses, or else its students can have better

performance.

(对应北美范文 99 Improving student performance P281)

102. The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea Investment firm.

“Currently more and more books are becoming available in electronic form — either free of charge on the Internet or for a very low price per book on CD-ROM.* People who would not pay bookstore prices will now have access to whatever book they want from their home or work computers. Consequently, literary classics are likely to be read more widely than ever before: 72 percent of those responding to a recent online survey said they would read books in 是否上大学更多就意味着更好呢？概念不对equate——可能去的学校不好。 忽略他因。 错误类比。情况不同，人数多可能必须提供多种课，同时也可能兴趣多。。。

electronic form, and 81 percent said they believed that reading classic works was important. Given this newly developing market, we should invest in E-Classics, a new company that sells electronic versions of literary classics.”

*A CD-ROM is a small portable disc capable of storing relatively large amounts of data that can be read by a computer. 报纸的图书版的文章：

现在越来越多的书有了电子版，或者放在网上免费获得，或者在光盘上以很低的价格出售。因此文学经典可以得到比以前更广泛的阅读。不能以书店价格购买这些书的人现在可以用很少的钱或者不花钱来阅读他们。类似的，觉得去图书馆或者等待其他人还书不方便的人现在可以通过家里或者工作用的电脑得到他想要的任何名著。这和文学名著接触的增长将从根本上影响公众的阅读品味，塑造比以前更成熟更博学的读者。

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3. More accesses to cheaper books do not necessarily guarantee the desire to read classics. the survey is doubtful It is hard to make profit when there are so many E-books available on the net.

(对应北美范文 100 Literary classics P282)

104. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.

“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”

Take Heart健身中心的管理者起草的商业计划：

去年夏天开了新的游泳池以后，TH发现会员对中心的使用率增加了12％。因此，为了增加我们的会员数量和决定于会员费的收入，我们应该在以后几年中继续增加新的娱乐设施：比如，一个多功能游戏室，一个网球场，一个迷你高尔夫球场。作为本地唯一一家提供各种活动的健身中心，我们将在健身和娱乐市场建立竞争优势。

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3. causal oversimplification a benefit-cost analysis should be given Whether the proposed recreational facilities are popular among the people of this area is unknown. 忽略他因。 错误类比。 收入和支出

(对应北美范文 102 Take Heart business plan P283)

106. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank.

“We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow?s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.”

Frostbite国家银行的借贷部门的备忘录：

我们不应该批准那个希望开一家KK冰激凌连锁店的特许店的本地团体的借贷请求。Frostbite以其寒冷的冬天而闻名，而冷天气意味着冰激凌的销售不利。比如，虽然Frostbite是个有10000人的镇子，它却只有一家冰激凌店Frigid Cow。尽管缺乏竞争，Frigid Cow的净收入去年冬天下降了10％。

1. Other factors in deciding whether to give loan to a company such as the credit of the company should be considered.

2. Admittedly, the former and prospective performance of the company is also important when the bank have to make

decision of whether or not should it give loan to a company. However, the author of the memorandum show no sufficient evidence to support his or her proposal that the bank should not give loan to Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors.

3.

1，

2， The statistics last year does not necessarily denote the future trend. 排除他因，净收入下降的原因是什么？可能是经营不好，草率定价，甚至正因为缺乏竞争导致了这些。 寒冷冬天不等于没有夏天，也不等于夏天短暂。不能说明原因。

(对应北美范文 104 Business loan for Kool Kone P285)

108. The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town?s business manager.

“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don?t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda?s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”

Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录：

研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆，我们应该可以大约减少50％的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。

1. There is no causal relationship between the development of the employees' health and the provision of a well-equipped

gym.

2. Therefore, the reduction of the cost of group health insurance coverage expected by the author is not guaranteed.

3. Even if the provision of the gym can cause a reduction of the cost, no one can rely on it to achieve a balanced town budget

since the health incidents occur very randomly.

(对应北美范文 106 Reducing the cost of health insurance P286)

110. The following appeared in a memorandum from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software

engineering firm.

“The package of benefits and incentives that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings to fund our current research and development initiatives.”

一家软件工程公司，Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录：

RW给专业人员的利益和激励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前我们组成公司时机制引入，我们的利润下降了1/4，而且，这个机制基本上没有效果，因为我们在招募和训练高水平专业人员方面只获得边际（marginal？）成功。为了再次得到更多的利润，RW应该提供两年前使用的较低的激励机制，并把节余用于研发的开展。

1， The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed

by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.

2， Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive

effects.

3， Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits

package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.

1. 同时发生并不代表因果，忽略他因

2.

3. 没有提供信息，不知道如果不提供这些会不会得到成功培训 即使是省下钱，也不知是否科研，因为可能因为其他原因导致的利润下降。

（对应北美范文 108 Reducing benefits at Ready-to-Ware P287）

缺115,116,119,120,121,A3,A1

115. The following is from an editorial that appeared in a River City newspaper.

“The Clio Development Group wants to build a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street in River City, but the plan should not be approved. Most of the buildings on the block would then have to be demolished. Because these buildings were erected decades ago, they have historic significance and must therefore be preserved as economic assets in the effort to revitalize a restored riverfront area. Recall how Lakesburg has benefited from business increases in its historic downtown center. Moreover, there is plenty of vacant land for a parking lot elsewhere in River City.”

给River城的报纸的编辑的一封信：

Clio发展商不应该被允许在Dock街修建多层停车场，因为这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁。因为这些建筑是几十年前修建的，他们具有历史意义，因此应该在复兴沿河区域的努力中被保留做经济资产。回忆一下沿湖地区通过他们的有历史的中心街区的商业增长得到了多少好处。而且，River城的其他地方有足够多空地可以修停车场。

文章反对摧毁古建筑来修建停车场。

所以你应该说那些建筑没有什么历史意义，不一定会带来商业增长。RIVER城其它地方并没有空地，就只有DOCK街需要

停车场其它地方远水解不了近渴，我们还可以通过其它方法避免摧毁建筑而又可以在DOCK街修建多层停车场

116. The following appeared in a corporate planning memorandum for a company that develops amusement parks.

“Because travel from our country to foreign countries has increased dramatically in recent years, our next project should be a World Tour theme park with replicas of famous foreign buildings, rides that have international themes, and refreshment stands serving only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. The best location would be near our capital city, which has large percentages of international residents and of children under the age of 16. Given the advantages of this site and the growing interest in foreign countries, the World Tour theme park should be as successful as our Space Travel theme park, where attendance has increased tenfold over the past decade.”

修建休闲公园的公司的董事会计划备忘录：

因为我国到其他国家的交通在近几年显著增加，我们的下一个目标应该是世界之旅主题公园，公园有各国著名建筑的复制品，有国际主题的旅行（ride？），点心摊位只提供离得最近的那个旅行方式所代表的国家的食物。最好的地点是靠近首都附近，那里有大量的国际居民和16岁以下的小孩。有了这个便利的地点和对国外兴趣的增长，世界交通主题公园将会和我们的参观者增长10倍的太空旅行主题公园一样成功。

1.

2.

3.

4.

1.

2.

3.

Increase in travelling abroad doesn't guarantee an increase in the interest to go the World Tour theme park. Gratuitous assumption: No reliable evidence can support the idea that the capital city is the best location for an amusement park. False analogy. Increasing travel from the country the mentioned comany belongs to to foreign countries does not necessarily mean there is also a increasing interest in the amusment parks with a world tour theme. Therefore, the proposal that the amusement park should be bulit in the capital city is also groundless. Even if there is an increasing interest in the parks with a theme of world tour, it is not necessary to go to the extreme such us making the refreshment stands serve only foods from the country represented by the nearest ride. What is more, the company's plan is based on a false analogy that the World tour theme park should be as successful as the Space travel theme park.

119. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a River City newspaper.

“The Clio Development Group’s plan for a multilevel parking garage on Dock Street should be approved in order to strengthen the economy of the surrounding area. Although most of the buildings on the block would have to be demolished, they are among the oldest in the city and thus of little current economic value. Those who oppose the project should realize that historic preservation cannot be the only consideration: even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up new ones that improve the local economy.”

给River城的报纸编辑的一封信：

Clio发展商在Dock街修建多层停车场的计划应该被批准以便加强附近地区的经济。虽然这个街区的大多数建筑将被摧毁，但他们是这个城市最老的建筑因此现在没有多少经济价值了。那些反对这个项目的人应该认识到保护历史不能是唯一的考虑，甚至雅典和耶路撒冷也会拆除旧建筑来盖新建筑以促进本地经济。

1.

2. No evidence is given to support the direct causal relationship between the buliding of mutilevel parking garage on Dock Streets with the development of the economy of the surrounding area. Admittedly, the historic preservation can not be the only consideration when decide whether to demolish the historic

buildings or not. It is also reckless to ignore the historic preservation. A decision should be made after balancing all the factors.

3.

120. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo?s Clothing to the staff.

“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot?s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo?s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”

Carlo's服饰老板给员工的备忘录：

由于Disc Depot，相邻街区的音像店从去年开始新的电台广告，它的业务显著增长，从商店人流量的大量增加就可以看出。当Disc Depot的老板显然已经足够富有可以退休时，Carlo's服饰的利润3年来一直停滞不变。为了促进我们的销售和利润，我们应该像DiscDepot一样从报纸广告转向经常的电台广告.

1， 人流量是否代表利润？

2， CARLO的停滞是否有其他原因

3， 错误类比。——服装与音像。

1， The foot trafic into the store and the increase of owners' personal wealth can not indicate the business growth of the Disc

Depot.

2， The author commits a fallacy of all things are equal.

3， The author commits a fallacy of false analogy.

4， Other factors other than the radio advertisement that may contribute to the business growth of Disc depot should be

considered and ruled out. Likewise, it is possible that there are some other reasons can explain the stagnant profit of carlo's clothing.

121. The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm.

“Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o?-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.” The fact cited by the writter of the letter that even Athens or Jerusalem will knock down old buildings to put up news one can not serve as a evidence to approve the demolishment of the old buildings on the Dock street.

Capital Idea投资公司的商业计划：

在ParkHill区的Thespian剧院，Pizzazz比萨，Niblick高尔夫俱乐部在过去2年都有业务增长。因此Capital Idea应该投资Poxy剧场，Slic－o比萨和Divot高尔夫俱乐部这3家新的Irongate区的企业。为使他们达到条件，我们应该要求他们参加特殊的项目：任何顾客在其中两家消费将在第三家得到折扣。通过刺激顾客在所有3家店消费，我们将增进每一家的利润，从而使我们的回报最大化。

1， The author commits a fallcy of false analogy.

2， Therefore the proposal of investment in the Irongate district is groundless. No investment should be made until

other factors have been considered and the benefit-cost analysis has been made.

3， The programme suggested by the author is reckless or even ridiculous. The possible result can be the opposite of

the author's imagination because the consumers have interest of only one or two of the three stores.

1， The business increases occured in the past two years. No one can guarantee the future profit.

2， The three new companies are not necessarily analogous to those profitable ones.

3， The condition that is required is absurd. There is no causal relatioship between the condition and the collective profit.

A1. The following editorial appeared in the South Fork Gazette.

“Last year, the city contracted with Flower Power to plant a variety of flowers in big decorative pots on Main Street and to water them each week. By midsummer many of the plants were wilted. This year the city should either contract for two waterings a week or save money by planting artificial flowers in the pots. According to Flower Power, the initial cost for artificial flowers would be twice as much as for real plants, but after two years, we would save money. Public reaction certainly supports this position: in a recent survey, over 1,200 Gazette readers said that the city wastes money and should find ways to reduce spending.”

1， 花枯萎了不只和浇水次数有关

2， 不能只从成本考虑要用假花还是真花还要从收益角度

3， 最后的那个调查不可靠

4， 那个公司提供的成本数据是否可靠

A3. The following appeared in a memorandum from the development director of the Largo Piano Company.

“The Largo Piano Company has long been known for producing carefully handcrafted, expensive pianos used by leading concert pianists. During the past few years, however, our revenues have declined; meanwhile, the Allegro Musical Instrument Company introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos and then saw its revenues increase. In order to increase Largo’s sales and in fact outsell Allegro, we should introduce a line of digital pianos in a variety of price ranges. Our digital pianos would be likely to find instant acceptance with customers, since they would be associated with the prestigious Largo name.”

1， The increase of revenue may just coincided with the sale of inexpensive digital pianos, while the two actually had no

causal realationship.

2， The strategy used in other companys may not be suit for the Largo Piano.

3， The expected instant acceptance with customers may not be the case. As the fact the author cited, the revenue of the Largo

Piano have declined during the past five years, it may no longer own the prestige.

1， 销售降低的原因？——排除他因。

2， 错误类比

3， 是否会得到持续接受？销售连续下降也许已经说明show声誉的下降。

1， A公司销售额上升的真实原因是否由于数字钢琴生产线的引入

2， 适用于A公司的不一定适用于L公司

3， 价格的变化将带来产品市场定位的变化，可能会损坏品牌形象