关于英国大选的五件事

Five things to know about the British election

Very occasionally in politics things turn out to be as they seem. This may prove true of Britain’s election campaign. The players are waiting anxiously for something to happen — for the tide to break right for David Cameron’s Conservatives or left for Ed Miliband’s Labour. The voters are looking ever more stubborn in a determination not to confer governing authority on either of the UK’s two big parties. 在政治领域，事情的结局很少有跟像表面上看一样的。英国议会大选的竞选或许也会如此。参选者焦急地等待着某些事情的发生：潮流是会向右，使戴维?卡梅伦(David Cameron)的保守党(Conservatives)得势？还是会向左，令埃德?米利班德(Ed Miliband)的工党(Labour)占优？英国选民似乎比以往更加固执，决心不给予英国两大政党中任何一方以绝对的统治权威。

There is still time enough for what Donald Rumsfeld famously called unknown unknowns to disturb the ground, but the cement is hardening. The ballot paper for May 7 does not include a box marked “hung parliament” or “coalition” but the polls, resolutely flat for months, suggest stalemate is the settled choice of the nation. I cannot recall when voters last

showed such studied indifference to the clamour and clatter of an election campaign. 唐纳德?拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)口中“未知的未知数”仍有足够时间去搅乱局面，但局面正在固化。5月7日投出的选票上，并不包含“悬浮议会”(hung parliament，即没有一个政党获得议会多数席位——译者注)或“联合政府”的选项，但是民调结果（顽固地持续了数月未发生变化）显示，势均力敌注定成为这个国家面临的局面。上一回选民对吵吵闹闹的竞选故意表现得漠不关心至这等地步，我已经记不起发生在何时了。

Yet there have been some things to learn from the past few weeks. The goal of modern political campaigning is to shut out real people while conveying precisely the opposite impression on the television news. Everything is controlled and choreographed, with loyal activists dressed down as “floating voters”. And yet, for all this process of sterilisation, something of the character of the players finds a way through. Remember Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama in the 2008 US presidential primaries? 不过，过去几周还是可以看出些许端倪的。现代政治竞选的目标是把人们真实的一面隐藏起来，并在电视新闻中传达出正好与之相反的形象。一切都是受到操纵、精心设计的，而忠实的积极分子们则假扮成“游离选民”（即并无坚决拥护的党派的投票者——译者注）。可是，在所有这种杀菌净化的过程中，参选者的某种人格总会自己暴露出来。还记得20xx年美国总统初选时希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)与巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)的对决吗？

The adage has it that politicians campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, the first thing to say is that Mr Cameron has been having some trouble with his iambic pentameters. Stepping out of 10 Downing Street, he looks every inch the prime minister. The absence of an organising purpose is camouflaged by abundant self-confidence and the hustle and bustle of the prime ministerial schedule. On the campaign trail, though, the lack of conviction shines through. Mr Cameron exudes detachment — almost irritation that he should be made to go through all this just to renew his lease on No 10. 有句名言说得好：政客竞选凭诗歌，治理靠散文。好吧，首先要说的是卡梅伦对抑扬格五音步(iambic pentameter)的运用一直不太好。走出唐宁街10号(10 Downing Street)时，他看起来就是个十足的首相。缺乏有条理性的打算，被充足的自信心以及繁忙的首相日程安排掩盖起来。不过，在竞选过程中，缺乏坚定信念的一面显露出来。对于为续订唐宁街10号的租约而被迫经历这一切，卡梅伦流露出冷漠——

甚至近乎不耐烦——的情绪。

Relatively speaking, Mr Miliband has had the better of the contest — though the “relatively” is an important qualification. The Labour leader started from a low base. He has long been caricatured and vilified by a hostile media. The campaign has shown him a sentient human being. Unsurprisingly, voters have been pleasantly surprised. Whatever one thinks of his

old-fashioned leftist romanticism, Mr Miliband looks a politician ready to fight his corner. 相对来说，米利班德的竞选形势更为光明——不过“相对”是一个重要的限定词。这位工党领袖从底层发迹，长久以来一直受到一家怀有敌意的媒体的挖苦和贬低。此次竞选展现了他作为富有情感的普通人的一面。选民已经感到了意外的惊喜，这是意料之中的。不管人们怎么看待他那老派过的左派浪漫主义，米利班德似乎已经做好了为维护自己的地位而战的准备。

A second thing to say about the campaign is that, if the polls are right, politicians of all colours will struggle to come to terms with a result that will more likely deliver a minority government or multi-party coalition than an outright majority or a neat arrangement such as Mr Cameron’s present coalition with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. 关于此次竞选第二件要说的事是，如果民调没错，形形色色的政界人士将艰难地达成这样一个结果——即更有可能成立一个少数党政府或多党联合政府，而不是绝对的多数党政府或者像现在卡梅伦的保守党与尼克?克雷格(Nick Clegg)的自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)执政联盟这样的简单安排。 There is nothing inherently unstable about minority or multi-party government. Canada, New Zealand or, closer to home, the majority of European states, prosper without a political culture of winner-takes-all. But the British political mindset, impervious to experience elsewhere, mistakes majoritarianism for good government. Anything else is chaos. The Cameron-Clegg

coalition says otherwise, but is widely dismissed as the exception that proves the rule. 少数党政府或是多党联合政府本身没有什么不稳定之处。在没有赢者全胜政治文化的情况下，加拿大、新西兰或者离英国更近的欧洲大部分国家照样繁荣昌盛。但是英国的政治思维（不受其他地区经验的影响）误认为多数主义就是好政府。其他形态的政府都是混乱无序的。卡梅伦-克雷格的执政联盟与这一点相悖，但是也被广泛认为是证明普遍规律的例外而被忽略。 The third lesson is that the Conservatives and Labour are hopelessly unprepared for the post-election constitutional challenge of holding together a splintering UK. Voters elsewhere may be equivocal, but the Scots have made up their minds. Having lost the independence referendum, the Scottish National party is on course for a stunning victory on May 7, largely at the expense of Labour. The SNP could well displace the Liberal Democrats as the third largest party at Westminster. 第三点是，令人失望的是，至于在大选后如何应对宪法挑战、使出现分裂倾向的英国保持主权完整，保守党和工党都没有做好准备。其他地区的选民可能是模棱两可的，但是苏格兰人已经下定决心。在输掉独立公投之后，苏格兰国家党(Scottish National Party)对5月7日取得大捷自然是势在必得，而付出主要代价的将是工党。苏格兰国家党很可能会取代自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)，成为英国议会的第三大政党。

The last time an overtly separatist party won a majority of seats in one of the nations of the union was 1918, when Sinn Féin grabbed two-thirds of those in Ireland. The rest, as they say, was uncomfortable history. Hopefully, Britain has moved beyond civil wars, but the strains on the union are no less real. 上一次有公开主张独立的政党在这个联合王国中赢得多数席位还是在19xx年，当时爱尔兰新芬党(Sinn Féin)在爱尔兰夺下了2/3的席位。正如人们所说，自那以来的是一段令人不适的历史。令人感到希望的是，英国已经走出了内战，但是联合王国内部的紧张局势仍然存在。

What will be demanded of a new government is a constitutional settlement that at

once meets Scottish aspirations for home rule, protects the essential fabric of the union and is

fair to the other nations of the UK. Messrs Cameron and Miliband have been all but silent. 新一届政府将需要拿出一套宪制安排——它同时满足苏格兰对地方自治的渴望，保护联合王国的基本框架，并且对其他民族也是公平的。卡梅伦与米利班德二位对此却几乎始终保持着沉默。

A fourth observation is that in spite of the overheated rhetoric of the campaign trail, the gap between Labour and Conservatives on economic management is smaller than it seems. True, Mr Miliband is needlessly hostile towards much of the business community and would take longer than the Conservatives to eliminate the fiscal deficit. But, as Fran?ois Hollande, the French president, could attest, realities quite quickly impose themselves on left-leaning governments. As for Mr Cameron, his pledge to balance the books by 2018 has been rendered incredible by a slew of spending and tax pledges. 第四点观察结论是，尽管此次竞选活动中出现了过激的言辞，但工党和保守党在经济管理上的差距比看起来要小。的确，米利班德没必要对商界怀有太多敌意，而且他想要消除财政赤字需要的时间会比保守党更长。但是，就像法国总统弗朗索瓦?奥朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)能够证实的那样，现实情况很快降临到左倾政府头上。而对于卡梅伦，一系列开支和税收许诺已使他对在20xx年前实现收支平衡的承诺变得不可信了。

The fifth lesson is deeply dispiriting: Tory- or Labour-led Britain will retreat from the world. Mr Cameron’s promised referendum could wrench the nation out of the EU, his immigration rules would shut out the hard working and the talented from abroad. As for Mr Miliband, he sees the world as largely irrelevant to his grand project to build a fairer society. Both parties will annoy Washington by cutting defence spending. But then, these days, Britain’s voters are as mistrustful of foreign adventures as they are of the political leaders standing for election on May 7. 第五点非常令人沮丧：保守党或工党领导的英国将要退出世界舞台。卡梅伦承诺的公投可能将这个国家拖出欧盟(EU)，他推出的移民规则会将海外人才及劳工拒之门外。而对于米利班德，他把整个世界视为与他建立更公平社会的宏伟计划基本不相关的事。两个政党都将削减国防开支，从而惹恼华盛顿方面。不过，目前英国选民对海外出征的态度和对5月7日参与竞选的政治领袖是一样的不信任。