第三次工业革命带来了什么？

20xx年由美国学者杰里米〃里夫金撰写的《第三次工业革命》一书出版，20xx年4月英国《经济学》杂志发表其编辑保罗〃麦基里《制造和创新：第三次工业革命》一文，“第三次工业革命”概念不胫而走，引起了国内外的广泛关注。

所谓“第三次工业革命”，主要是指上世纪70年代以来以信息和新能源技术创新引领并孕育的新一轮工业革命，不仅包括“制造业数字化革命”，而且包括“能耗互联网革命”，还包括生物电子、新材料和纳米等技术革命。类似前两次工业革命，随着新技术创新在多产业显现并加速扩散应用，第三次工业革命正在重新塑造着人们的生产生活方式，将给人类社会带来比前两次工业革命更为广泛深远的影响。

从经济发展的内在规律看，第三次工业革命具有其历史必然性。

它是人类社会解决能源枯竭和严重生态问题的根本出路。第二次工业革命是以大规模使用化石能源为基础的。但化石能源是不可再生资源，经过多年开发利用不仅面临着枯竭，而且已经造成严重的生态问题。因此，新技术革命浪潮应运而生，其核心之一就是要解决资源和能源枯竭及其生态问题，所以有学者甚至认为这次技术革命浪潮是以绿色技术 1

革命为主要特征的。正是站在这样一个战略制高点上，西方发达国家高度重视可再生能源产业发展，正在加快新能源技术的研发和应用，在替代传统能源上已初见成效。

它是信息技术革命和人工智能等科技发展的必然结果。从工业化进程看，每一次工业革命都是使用机械生产替代人的劳动，降低生产成本，第三次工业革命也不例外。但与前两次比较，第三次工业革命有一个重大差别，就是用机器替代脑力劳动，并在更大程度上替代体力劳动。在过去30年里，信息技术革命日益向智能化迈进，机器人在制造业、农业、物流、服务和家务劳动等领域的广泛使用，越来越把人们从体力劳动中解放出来。可以预见，随着人工智能等技术革命发展，人类社会将走向智能化。

它是新材料和纳米等技术革命广泛扩散应用的现实后果。纳米科技是20世纪80年代末诞生并正在崛起的新科技，其基本涵义是在纳米尺寸范围内认识和改造自然，并根据需要通过直接操作和安排原子与分子制造出新的物质。目前，超导、生物医用、光电子等新材料层出不穷，纳米技术方兴未艾，不仅使原有的劳动对象发生了质变，而且大大增加了新的劳动对象。特别是，纳米技术通过3D打印，采用“添加式制造”方式，能将工业生产所需的原材料降低到传统生产方式的1／10，大幅度提高物质资源的利用效率。

与前两次一样，第三次工业革命是一个长达六七十年甚 2

至上百年的创造性“毁灭”过程，它在诱发一系列技术创新浪潮的同时，将导致生产方式和组织结构的深刻变革，从而使国家竞争力的基础和全球产业竞争格局发生彻底重构。

第一，在国际分工中以廉价劳动力为基础的传统比较优势将再遭到大幅削弱。随着机器人性能的改善，机器人的单位产出成本将有可能在越来越多的领域中比廉价劳动力的成本还要低廉，大量重复性劳动岗位将被机器人替代，一部分体力劳动者将从制造业等部门中淘汰出来。目前，全球机器人市场发展十分迅速，日本的工业机器人应用比例已高达33%。机器人的大量采用，不仅将抑制体力劳动者的收入提高，而且将导致大量体力劳动者的失业，很有可能阻断发展中国家突破“中等收入陷阱”。

第二，未来国家竞争力的基础在于能否占领第三次工业革命核心技术的制高点。第三次工业革命的创造性“毁灭”过程在使许多劳动密集型产业消失的同时，也将使机器人、可再生能源、新材料、3D打印机、纳米技术、生物电子技术等新兴产业不断成长为新的主导部门，这些产业在装备制造、产品研发和相关生产性服务业中将创造大量就业机会，使单纯的体力劳动者难以生存。更重要的是，如果一个国家在第三次工业革命主导部门的核心技术上不能取得国际领先地位，那么它原先在传统工业上的国际竞争优势最终也将丧失。这是因为，每一项技术革命的重大作用远非局限于新 3

兴产业部门，它还将通过组织创新与自身所创造的新型通用技术的共同作用，对传统产业进行改造，使这些产业的生产率发生跃升。这就是在第二次工业革命时英国最终丧失“世界工厂”优势地位的根本性原因。

第三，分散式和社会化的生产方式将取代以大企业为主导的传统生产方式。前两次工业革命都是以集中化的工厂生产为基础，并采用中央集权和自上而下的垂直管理的生产方式，大权掌握在少数工业巨头手中。但在第三次工业革命中，随处可见的可再生能源由数百万自我生产并将盈余通过能源互联网进行整合和分配的生产者，代替了石化能源巨头控制和操纵能源生产与分配的生产方式。与这种可再生能源新的生产方式一样，以3D打印为基础的数字化生产可以使每个人都成为生产者，从而出现了“社会制造”的生产方式：每个人都可以建立家庭式工厂，通过在线交流进行产品的研发、设计和制造。与传统工厂经营模式不同，在新型智能化帮助下，网络用户不需要生产车间就可实现设计的量产和销售。这种分散式和社会化的生产方式将更有助于实现经济民主、改善收入分配和生产生产社会化。

第四，将推动经济全球化格局和发展中大国的产业布局发生重大变化。目前，经济全球化采取的是“集中生产、便于销售”的生产组织模式，大量食品和制成品从遥远的发展中国家远销到发达国家，在这种长距离运输中产生了大量的 4

碳排放，造成了巨大的环境和能源压力。第三次工业革命将有可能从根本上改变这种经济全球化模式：机器人的采用将阻止制造业继续从发达国家迁往发展中国家，并使相当一部分制造业逐步回流发达国家；分散式和社会化生产方式将使“分散生产、就地销售”成为大国区域贸易和国际贸易的新模式，从而大幅度降低碳排放。拿我国来说，第三次工业革命将从根本上扭转制造业集中在沿海地区的不合理分工格局，有助于推进中西部地区的“就地工业化”，并在全国范围内实现“工农业比邻而居”的生态发展模式。

5

 

第二篇：工业革命给我们带来了什么

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

I.

II.MARKET DYNAMICSDATA SOURCE/ ASSUMPTIONS/

PROJECTIONS

MARKET POTENTIALS

ENABLING CONDITIONSIII.IV.

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

I.MARKET DYNAMICS

Health Tourism

?Trillion dollar industry

?Medical Tourism included in the Philippine Medium Term

Development Plan (2004-2010) and 2007 Investment Priorities Plan ?> US$390 Billion Asian Health care expenditures, US$3 trillion world market per year (Rodolfo, 2005).

?Asian industry leaders:

?Thailand

?Singapore

?Malaysia

?India

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

I.MARKET DYNAMICS

Medical Tourism in Asia: 2005

CountryEstimated Market Size

VolumeValue (US$)Current MarketTarget Markets for ExpansionTarget RevenuesThailand1.10 M470 MJapanese (130,000),

Americans (59,000),

Britons (14,000)

Indonesians, Malaysians (70-

85%)

Middle East (Kuwait, Qatar,

Saudi Arabia) & South Asian

(Particularly Bangladesh)

60% from Indonesia, 10%

from Brunei, Vietnam,

Singapore & Thailand, 30%

from West Asia, South Asia

(Bangladesh & India), Japan

Indonesia, USA (OFWs),

Micronesian States, South

Korea)JapanRest of Southeast AsiaAffluent Asian MarketSoutheast Asia, West Asia, Africa, UK & USAUS$2B by 2010Singapore.270 M915 M1 M international patients/ year (US$3B by 2012)US$2.2 B by 2012India.150 M333 MMalaysia.122 M94 MMiddle East, China, US$ 1B by 2010Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, BruneiPhilippines??USA, Japan, Micronesian States, South Korea, China?

Source: Morato et. al, 2006

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

I.MARKET DYNAMICS

Philippine Medical Tourism

?Small in terms of volume of foreign patients as compared to its Asian neighbors

?Foreign patients primarily “Balikbayans”

?No available data on total number of foreign patients treated

?0.4% of total tourist arrivals visited for health reasons (2005 DOT Visitor Sample Survey to 5 NCR based hospitals)

?Globally sought Filipino medical manpower

?Filipinos distinct quality of care, compassion and hospitality

?Reasonably-priced healthcare

?World-class medical facilities are built outside Metro Manila

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

I.MARKET DYNAMICS

Central Luzon

Tourist Market:

?

Stays 10 days in the Philippines

& spends US$100/day

?CL may achieve 1 million

tourist arrival in 20 years

due to DMIA

2007 2012 2017 2022 2027

Local Market:

?8.2 million population (2000, NSO),

17.4 million by 2027 (One of the more

affluent regions in the Country);

?77% of families with savings

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

I.DATA SOURCE/ ASSUMPTIONS/ PROJECTIONS

?Coverage of Medical service -dental, beauty/ skin care, ophthalmology and diagnostic check-up.

?Sources on the Number of dental, eye, beauty/ skin, and diagnostic clinics

?1999 DTI Business Name Directories

?WEBNRS

?2006 DOH-BFAD directories

?2000 Censal population-total population by age group, sex and sex ratio (2000, NSO)

?2003 Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (2003 FIES, NSO)

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

I.DATA SOURCE/ ASSUMPTIONS/ PROJECTIONS?DENTAL

?Should avail –8,718,069 individuals (age 5 and above,

85% of 2007 projected CL population

?Could afford –

?Will avail –6,748,074 (Based on FIES, 66% of CL population)2,699,230 individuals (26% of CL population,

DTI study assumption)

?BEAUTY/ SKIN CARE

?Should avail –

?Could afford –

?Will avail –6,218,385 (age 15 to 64, 61% of CL population)2,422,078 ( Based on FIES, 24% of CL population484,416 (.05% of CL population, DTI study

assumption)

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

I.DATA SOURCE/ ASSUMPTIONS/ PROJECTIONS

?EYE SURGERY (CATARACT)-

?Should avail -30,455 (individual age 65, .29% of CL

population

11,862 (based on FIES, .12% of CL

population

11,862 ( DTI study assumption) ?Could afford -?Will avail -

?DIAGNOSTIC CHECK-UP

?Should avail-2,270,764 (individual age 40 and above,

22% of CL population

1,456,551 (FIES, 14% of CL population)

582,620 (6% of CL population, DTI study

assumption)?Could afford-?Will avail-

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

I.DATA SOURCE/ ASSUMPTIONS/ PROJECTIONS

?Investment requirement

?3 Million per clinic ( 2006 CIC-NIMTC's Spa establishment survey)?Estimated value of services

?Dental

?minimum of P300 on prophylaxis per visit

?Beauty/ Skin Care

?cheapest package for facial is P1,500

?Eye surgery (Cataract laser treatment)

?quoted at P35,000/ operation

?Basic Diagnostic Check-up

?priced at P1,500

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

I.DATA SOURCE/ ASSUMPTIONS/ PROJECTIONS

?Jobs generated

?A clinic may employ 3 to 7 workers depending on the extent of operations.

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

III.MARKET POTENTIALS

A.DEVELOPMENT OF MEDICAL CLINICS

B.VALUE OF INVESTMENTS

C.MAGNITUDE OF MARKET

D.JOBS CREATED

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

III.MARKET POTENTIALS

MEDICAL FACILITY DEVELOPMENT3,500

NO. FACILITIES3,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050xxxxxxxxxxxx-200020222027

YEAR

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

III.MARKET POTENTIALS

PROJECTED VALUE OF INVESTMENTS9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00-2000 INVESTMENTS (in Billion Php20072012

YEAR201720222027

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

III.MARKET POTENTIALS

PROJECTED SALES (Local Market)

10.00

GROSS SALES (in billions)

8.006.004.00

2007

2012

YEAR

2017

2022

2.00-2000

2027

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

III.MARKET POTENTIALS

PROJECTED SALES (Foreign Tourists & OFWs)

120

GROSS SALES (in Million Php)

10080604020-

2000

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

III.MARKET POTENTIALS

EMPLOYMENT GENERATION12,000

10,000

NO. EMPLOYEES8,0006,0004,000

2,000

-200020072012

YEAR201720222027

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

In summary, the Medical Tourism Industry in Central Luzon, initially covered

dental, beauty/ skin care, eye and diagnostic services, is worth P 2.53 B in 2000, P 7.71 B in 2007 and is expected to reach P 13.53 B in 20 years.SALES

(Billion Php)INVESTMENT (Billion Php)

0.63 EMPLOYMENT*(Billion Php)0.07 TOTAL(Billion Php)2.53 20001.83

2007

2012

20172.71 3.05 4.49 5.22 0.51 0.60 7.71 8.87 3.52

4.06 6.01 6.91 0.69 0.79 10.22 11.76 2022

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

IV.ENABLING CONDITIONS

A.Preparation & Implementation of the Central Luzon

Medical Tourism Roadmap & Strategic Development Plan (2007-2027)

B.Formation of a Central Luzon Core Group on Medical

Tourism

C.Formation of a Central Luzon Medical Tourism Association

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon:

An Emerging Industry

IV.ENABLING CONDITIONS

A.Preparation & Implementation of the Central Luzon Medical Tourism

Roadmap & Strategic Development Plan (2007-2027)Initial Plans Made:

1.Central Luzon Medical Tourism (2007 -2027): An Emerging Industry

2. 2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

a)Planning/ Advocacy

b)Human Resource Development and Research and Development

c)Industry Players Development

2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

Issues (SWOT)Lack of

awareness on the Medical Tourism Industry

ObjectivesEstablish & manage a CL Medical Tourism Information Database

Activities

1.Preparation of medical registries:

Responsible

Unit

Date

I. PLANNING & ADVOCACY

a.Medical professionalsb.Health/ Medical Facilities

c.Laboratories/ Diagnostic Centers2. Inventory of traditional medicine in Central Luzon

DOH, DOT, TESDA, DTI, NEDA, DOLE, DILG, Hospital owners, Medical Professionals, business sector

Oct. ?07 to Mar. ?08

3. Creation of e-mail group

Jan. to Mar. ?08Apr. to Jun. ?08Oct. 07 to Jan. ?08

4. Creation of website for CL Medical Tourism

Increased

awareness of the public on the Medical Tourism Industry & its benefits

1. Preparation & development of a Medical Tourism Strategic Development Plan (Medical Tourism Industry Roadmap 2007-2027)

2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

Issues

(SWOT)ObjectivesActivitiesResponsible UnitDate

Oct. ?0

7 to

Jan.

?08

Oct. ?0

7 to

Jan.

?08

?Nov.

?07

Jan. ?0

7I. PLANNING & ADVOCACY2. Preparation & development of a Medical Tourism Industry Advocacy Plan 3. Incorporation of the Medical Tourism Strategic Development Plan in Regional Development PlansEstablish Private-Public Partnership 1. Conduct of Central Luzon Medical Tourism Cluster Stakeholders' Follow-up Meeting2. Conduct Medical Tourism Industry Advocacy to RDC, CLGCFI-CLICC, LGUsDOH, DOT, TESDA, DTI, NEDA, DOLE, DILG, Hospital owners, Medical Professionals, business sector

2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

Issues

(SWOT)ObjectivesActivitiesResponsible UnitDateII. HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT & RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT

Lack of

practice-

enhancement

trainings of

medical

students

and/or

graduates

and medical

staffFacilitate sending of medical students/ graduates & medical staff to other countries to get experience and learn modern medical techniquesDOH, TESDA, Medical Schools1. Formulation of a Human Resource & Research Development Program for the Medical Tourism Industry to include the ff:

a)

b)Capability Build-Up Trainings for Medical Students/ GraduatesSkills & technical trainings (e.g.

services on healthcare, medical,

caregiver, emergency medical,

biomedical equipment &

massage therapy)

Investment Program for the

Medical Tourism Industry

(medical schools/ training

centers/ hospitals & clinics/

diagnostic centers/laboratories,

instructors/lecturersJan. to Dec. ?08c)

2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

Issues (SWOT)

Objectives

Activities

Responsible

Unit

Date

II. HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT & RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT

Tie-up with Filipino medical

professionals/ associations

abroad for transfer of skills and

techniques to local professionals

Moderate quality of health/ medical facilities

1. Conduct of Teaching-Learning Seminars/ Workshops for Medical Professionals

DOH, TESDA, DOLE, Medical Schools, Medical

Professionals/ Jan. to Associations, Dec. Hospitals?08

Jan. to

Dec. ?08

Improve/ upgrade health and medical facilities1. Training on Hospital Management

2. Benchmarking Mission to Medical Tourism

Partner hospitals and JCI Accredited medical facilities

DOH, TESDA, Medical Schools

Feb. ?08

Hospital/ Medical facilities, DOH, DOT, TESDA, Medical professionals

Intensify research into new

technologies and modern medical practices

Jan. to Dec. ?08

1. Conduct of research

2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

Issues (SWOT)

Objectives

Activities

Responsible

Unit

Date

III. INDUSTRY PLAYERS DEVELOPMENT

Absence of a regulatory & accreditation body that would set standards for the industryPresence of

agencies & groups that would support the development of the Medical Creation of a CL Core Group on Medical Tourism Industry in Tourism (DOH, DOT, TESDA, DTI, NEDA, CLDOLE, DILG)

DOH, DOT,

TESDA, DTI. NEDA, DOLE,

DILG

Oct. ?07

Creation of CL Medical Tourism Partners Association

CL Hospitals/ Medical Facilities, Medical Association/ Professionals, Business Chambers, Tour Operators/ Travel Agencies, DOH, DOT, TESDA, DTI. NEDA, DOLE,

DILG

Nov. ?07

2007 -2008 Medical Tourism Industry Development Plan

Issues (from SWOT)Absence of a common brand for the health and wellness industryLack of

incentives for the

development of medical facilities

ObjectivesAvailability of a Brand for the promotion & development of the health and wellness industry in CL

Activities

Responsible

Unit

Date

List of CL Brand Name for the Health and Wellness Industry specifically on medical tourism (to be presented to the CL Medical Tourism Partners Association)

Establishment of International

Medical Zones in Central Luzon

Lack of foreign patientsPortability of public and private insurance

Increase number of foreign patients to medical facilitiesLinkage with insurance companies

CL Hospitals/ Medical Facilities, Medical Association/ Professionals, Business Jan. –Chambers, Tour Dec. ?National Strategic Framework for Health and

Operators/ Wellness08Travel Agencies, DOH, DOT, TESDA, DTI.

Develop Medical Tourism Tour Packages NEDA, DOLE, (Meeting of CL Medical Tourism Partners Apr. ?0DILGAssociation & Travel Agencies/ Tour Operators)8

Jan. –

Dec. ?08

Jan-Feb. ?08

Marketing and networking activities

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

IV.ENABLING CONDITIONS

B.CL Wellness Core Group

Chair :

Members: DOH DOT

NEDA

TESDA

DILG

DOLE

DTIExecutive Committee(Agency Directors)Secretariat:

Manning SystemPlanning & Advocacy(NEDA & DILG)HRD/ R&D(DOLE & TESDA

1. Principal –Director

2. Permanent

Representative –Technical Staff

3. Alternate

Representative –Technical StaffIndustry Players Development(DOH, DTI & DOT)

Medical Tourism in Central Luzon: An Emerging Industry

IV.ENABLING CONDITIONS

C.Formation of a CL Medical Tourism Association

?Medical professionals

?Doctors

?Dentists

?Ophthalmologist

?Optometrists

?Plastic/ cosmetic surgeons

?Physical therapists

?Occupational therapists

?Nurses

?Midwives

?Nutritionists

THANK YOU!!!